Mike Butcher - mbites

I think they're both missing the point a bit actually. We are human beings. We *need* social contact as much as we need air, food and water. The online tools that are emerging and indeed, taking off, let us feed our fundamental need for social contact and either make it easier, faster or more rewarding. The key is in the word 'social'. It's not about the technology, it's about what it's letting us do or create or get access to. I agree that there are way too many tools out there to do this and there are too many companies trying to get in on the 'online social media' craze and getting it wrong because they forget that it's not about putting the technology in place - the people need to be there too. You could build the fanciest bar in any town in the world with the latest state of the art lighting, super duper beer dispensing kit, shiny self-cleaning gizmos and gadgets and can even pump in artificial smells and atmosphere. But with no people, it's dead. But if your friends start hanging out there, then you will probably try it for size too so that you get to spend time with your friends and/or meet more people like you. I'm quite sure the scene will settle down. And I'm equally sure that some duff investments will be made and that not every social media company or every social media campaign will work. But it serves a basic human need, so like email and mobile messaging, it will exist in some format or other for a long time to come. btw, the Church has *always* been a social network.

Hmmm. I reckon Zoli gets it pretty much spot on here: http://www.zoliblog.com/2007/08/01/dvorak-on-bubble-20/ "Of course there will be a Bubble - booms are always followed by a bust." Maybe we need to step back a bit for perspective. Many venture-funded or unfunded web 2.0 companies will undoubtedly collapse when the VC money moves elsewhere; and when the money moves, we'll have relative stagnation and then a collapse of sorts. Sooner or later -- later, if they're lucky -- these new companies will have to become self-funding, and how many really stand a chance of that with their ad-revenue-then-flip-to-google-and-er-that's-it business models? But the best tools and services will survive and we'll see some wonderful success stories; some truly great (big) businesses that changed and continue to change everything. It needn't be a huge bust because start-up costs and the consequent cost of failure are now so very, very low. Anyone can have a go. Some will succeed against the odds because they're brilliant (and have luck and timing in their side). But you don't build a cash-burning YouTube or Facebook or Twitter without serious funding and I imagine that many/most of the VC gambling chips in this particular space are already on the table.