John Dvorak is an old-fashioned tech jounralist in the US who thinks we’re going to have another dotcom bust:
“Every single person working in the media today who experienced the dot-com bubble in 1999 to 2000 believes that we are going through the exact same process and can expect the exact same results—a bust…Today everything from YouTube to the local church has a social-networking angle. And this doesn’t even consider the actual social-networking sites, from MySpace to LinkedIn to Facebook to even Second Life. This scene is totally out of control and will contribute to the collapse for sure.”
Marshal Kirkpatrick is a startup guy and a former TechCrunch writer who nails this rubbish to the wall:
“I say: Social networking is an emerging utility that combines the functionality of blogging’s self publishing with the usefulness of email list serves. Social networking services make these activities more accessible than ever before… Why on earth is this man considered a leading voice on tech? I’m guessing that it’s because he speaks to the potent paranoia of much of the aging population – afraid in the face of a changing, confusing world that they will face humiliation if they bet on new tech, that they will be unemployed if things take a downturn or that they will lose their self-righteous know-it-all credentials if this new economy does succeed.”
I think they’re both missing
I think they’re both missing the point a bit actually. We are human beings. We *need* social contact as much as we need air, food and water. The online tools that are emerging and indeed, taking off, let us feed our fundamental need for social contact and either make it easier, faster or more rewarding.
The key is in the word ’social’. It’s not about the technology, it’s about what it’s letting us do or create or get access to. I agree that there are way too many tools out there to do this and there are too many companies trying to get in on the ‘online social media’ craze and getting it wrong because they forget that it’s not about putting the technology in place – the people need to be there too.
You could build the fanciest bar in any town in the world with the latest state of the art lighting, super duper beer dispensing kit, shiny self-cleaning gizmos and gadgets and can even pump in artificial smells and atmosphere. But with no people, it’s dead. But if your friends start hanging out there, then you will probably try it for size too so that you get to spend time with your friends and/or meet more people like you.
I’m quite sure the scene will settle down. And I’m equally sure that some duff investments will be made and that not every social media company or every social media campaign will work. But it serves a basic human need, so like email and mobile messaging, it will exist in some format or other for a long time to come.
btw, the Church has *always* been a social network.
Hmmm. I reckon Zoli gets it
Hmmm. I reckon Zoli gets it pretty much spot on here:
http://www.zoliblog.com/2007/08/01/dvorak-on-bubble-20/
“Of course there will be a Bubble – booms are always followed by a bust.”
Maybe we need to step back a bit for perspective. Many venture-funded or unfunded web 2.0 companies will undoubtedly collapse when the VC money moves elsewhere; and when the money moves, we’ll have relative stagnation and then a collapse of sorts. Sooner or later — later, if they’re lucky — these new companies will have to become self-funding, and how many really stand a chance of that with their ad-revenue-then-flip-to-google-and-er-that’s-it business models? But the best tools and services will survive and we’ll see some wonderful success stories; some truly great (big) businesses that changed and continue to change everything.
It needn’t be a huge bust because start-up costs and the consequent cost of failure are now so very, very low. Anyone can have a go. Some will succeed against the odds because they’re brilliant (and have luck and timing in their side). But you don’t build a cash-burning YouTube or Facebook or Twitter without serious funding and I imagine that many/most of the VC gambling chips in this particular space are already on the table.
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I think his article was way
I think his article was way off mark. He seems to be living in the previous decade of dial-up connections.
My kids are too impatient for their favourite band to appear on MTV, they search on You Tube and watch it on demand, they are 8 and 10 year olds. This generation will drive the web, those that were born with the internet and know nothing else.
The billions of internet users don’t talk nor think about a bubble, only journalists trying to save their careers do.
___________________
Doma
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